AI experts say there’s a chance AI could wipe us out. How are those odds calculated?
News Source
•Sun, 20 Sep 2026 19:27:33 +0000
📰 What Happened
An Anthropic researcher says there is more than a 10 per cent chance AI could kill all humans within a decade. Evan Hubinger leads safety research at the company. His comments came after another Anthropic researcher resigned and warned that firms were racing ahead without proper safeguards.
Other experts have made similar guesses. Nobel Prize winner Geoffrey Hinton puts the chance of AI causing human extinction in 30 years at 10 to 20 per cent. These figures are estimates, not measured facts.
🔍 The Backstory
AI systems have grown more powerful every year. Some of the people building them now try to guess the risk of the worst outcomes. Working out the chance of something that has never happened is very hard. Experts call these numbers subjective.
The debate about AI safety has grown louder. Some researchers have quit their jobs to speak out. Companies say they are working on safety, but critics argue they are moving far too fast.
🎯 Why It Matters
This matters because AI is already part of everyday life. Knowing that experts disagree about the risk helps people judge the debate for themselves.
An Anthropic researcher says there is more than a 10 per cent chance AI could kill all humans within a decade. Evan Hubinger leads safety research at the company. His comments came after another Anthropic researcher resigned and warned that firms were racing ahead without proper safeguards.
Other experts have made similar guesses. Nobel Prize winner Geoffrey Hinton puts the chance of AI causing human extinction in 30 years at 10 to 20 per cent. These figures are estimates, not measured facts.
AI systems have grown more powerful every year. Some of the people building them now try to guess the risk of the worst outcomes. Working out the chance of something that has never happened is very hard. Experts call these numbers subjective.
The debate about AI safety has grown louder. Some researchers have quit their jobs to speak out. Companies say they are working on safety, but critics argue they are moving far too fast.
This matters because AI is already part of everyday life. Knowing that experts disagree about the risk helps people judge the debate for themselves.