The surprising factor shaping young Australians' family plans
SBS News
β’Sat, 4 Jul 2026 20:41:23 +0000
π° What Happened
New research from the Australian Institute of Family Studies (AIFS) has found that while 7 in 10 young Australians still hope to have children, trust in public institutions is a surprisingly strong predictor of whether they actually plan to start a family. Nearly 79% of young Australians who trust the country's institutions hope to have children, compared to just 59% of those who don't. This challenges the dominant narrative that financial concerns alone are driving Australia's record-low fertility rate of 1.48 babies per woman in 2024 β the lowest since records began. The AIFS has been tracking longitudinal data since 2004.
π The Backstory
Australia's fertility rate has been declining for decades, falling well below the replacement rate of 2.1. The public conversation has focused heavily on economic factors: housing affordability crisis, rising cost of living, and expensive childcare. However, the AIFS research suggests a deeper societal trust deficit may be at play. Young Australians may be asking not just 'can we afford a child?' but 'do we trust the society we'd be raising them in?' This connects to broader discussions about declining trust in government, media, and institutions β a trend observed across many Western democracies.
π― Why It Matters
This research reframes Australia's fertility crisis as not merely an economic problem but a crisis of institutional trust, suggesting that policies focused solely on financial incentives may be insufficient to reverse declining birth rates if broader societal confidence is not restored.
New research from the Australian Institute of Family Studies (AIFS) has found that while 7 in 10 young Australians still hope to have children, trust in public institutions is a surprisingly strong predictor of whether they actually plan to start a family. Nearly 79% of young Australians who trust the country's institutions hope to have children, compared to just 59% of those who don't. This challenges the dominant narrative that financial concerns alone are driving Australia's record-low fertility rate of 1.48 babies per woman in 2024 β the lowest since records began. The AIFS has been tracking longitudinal data since 2004.
Australia's fertility rate has been declining for decades, falling well below the replacement rate of 2.1. The public conversation has focused heavily on economic factors: housing affordability crisis, rising cost of living, and expensive childcare. However, the AIFS research suggests a deeper societal trust deficit may be at play. Young Australians may be asking not just 'can we afford a child?' but 'do we trust the society we'd be raising them in?' This connects to broader discussions about declining trust in government, media, and institutions β a trend observed across many Western democracies.
This research reframes Australia's fertility crisis as not merely an economic problem but a crisis of institutional trust, suggesting that policies focused solely on financial incentives may be insufficient to reverse declining birth rates if broader societal confidence is not restored.