Who is calling the shots in Iran amid the deadly war with the US?
News Source
β’Wed, 15 Jul 2026 15:35:57 +0000
π° What Happened
Nearly five months into the US-Iran war, a power struggle is unfolding within Iran's leadership following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) under Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi has taken the lead, particularly over control of the Strait of Hormuz, while President Masoud Pezeshkian has been sidelined despite technically heading the security council.
π The Backstory
The war began after US and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, along with other senior Iranian officials. Since then, Iran has been governed by a clique of military and security commanders including IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi, joint wartime command head Ali Abdollahi, and IRGC Navy commander Ali Azmaei. Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been designated as his successor but has not been seen publicly and does not wield the same authority as his father. The hardline Paydari Front, led by Saeed Jalili, opposes any concessions to the US, while President Pezeshkian has pushed for diplomacy but been marginalized. The conflict has killed at least 30 civilians and hit 11 provinces in the past week alone, with fighting centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.
π― Why It Matters
The question of who actually controls Iran's strategic decisions has direct implications for the trajectory of the war, global energy markets, and the stability of the Middle East. If hardliners in the IRGC maintain control, the conflict is likely to escalate further, potentially disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The lack of a clear, unified leadership also makes negotiated resolution far more difficult, as any ceasefire deal requires a counterpart capable of delivering on commitments.
Nearly five months into the US-Iran war, a power struggle is unfolding within Iran's leadership following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) under Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi has taken the lead, particularly over control of the Strait of Hormuz, while President Masoud Pezeshkian has been sidelined despite technically heading the security council.
The war began after US and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, along with other senior Iranian officials. Since then, Iran has been governed by a clique of military and security commanders including IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi, joint wartime command head Ali Abdollahi, and IRGC Navy commander Ali Azmaei. Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been designated as his successor but has not been seen publicly and does not wield the same authority as his father. The hardline Paydari Front, led by Saeed Jalili, opposes any concessions to the US, while President Pezeshkian has pushed for diplomacy but been marginalized. The conflict has killed at least 30 civilians and hit 11 provinces in the past week alone, with fighting centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.
The question of who actually controls Iran's strategic decisions has direct implications for the trajectory of the war, global energy markets, and the stability of the Middle East. If hardliners in the IRGC maintain control, the conflict is likely to escalate further, potentially disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The lack of a clear, unified leadership also makes negotiated resolution far more difficult, as any ceasefire deal requires a counterpart capable of delivering on commitments.